Costa Mesa Speedway
National Predictions
September 28, 1996

From: Tom Simrak
also see: Speedway National Championship Press Conference,
Press Conference Photos
and the race! - Speedway National Championship


Another year of speedway is coming to an end Oct,28th. On that night, speedway, like no other motor sport, crowns it's National Champion. In one night a rider goes from contender to champion. Whatever they did all season long is thrown out the window. It's winner take all, no holds barred. In looking over the program, I tried to put it all together. I used a little intuition, calculating and of course lots of guessing. The night comes down to a few factors. Preparation, determination, equipment and of course luck of the draw. Some of the riders, although well capable of winning, they just got a bad draw and thus start in less favorable spots on the line. Other riders will only be helped by getting the good draw and the pole twice.

If we look at preparation, we have to look at the local riders. Not that this is a cut on the northern California riders it's just that the locals will be more familiar with the track. Because of this I would rule out the northern riders. Next is determination. Some of the riders are getting close to the end of their racing career. They would love to finish on a high note. This could help riders like Bobby Schwartz, Robert Pfetzing, and Shawn McConnell. If you look at the equipment of the riders they are all close to equal. Luck will play a big part here. Who will throw a chain, heat a clutch, or just run like crap. Luck of the draw looks like it will help a few guys on race night. Some guys got a bad draw but can over come that. Greg Hancock got a bad draw but should over come it. He starts on the outside twice. This may work to his advantage because he's used to bigger tracks and therefore can ride the outside. Brad Oxley also got bad gates. He is in the number three spot twice. Fortunately for him, These are not his toughest races, until his last ride. It looks like the best draw will go to Steve Lucero. He has the pole twice and the first ride of each round. No back to back rides. In my own little fantasy world I have picked nobody to have a perfect night. The night should come down to heat 17 & 18. Lucero will need to win heat 17 to have a score of 14 pts. If Oxley or Hancock win in heat 18 they will also have 14 pts. But if Schwartz wins he could have 13 or 14 pts and depending on earlier heats could also be a winner. You see, This whole thing is a crap shoot. However I did pick a winner. I think Lucero will win heat 17 and finish with 14, Oxley will win heat 18 and also finish with 14 pts. They will have a run off and Lucero will win the coin toss and start on the pole in the runoff. Lucero will need a great gate to hold off Oxley and WILL win his second national championship.

So now that I said all that, Here's a look at the program so you can pick for yourself. The rider listed on top has the pole. The last listed in on the wall.

Heat 1Heat 2Heat 3Heat 4
Steve LuceroGary HicksEddie CastroBart Bast
Bobby SchwartzBrad OxleyMike FariaJohn Aden
Louis KossuthDonnie OdomRobert PfetzingGreg Hancock
Andy NorthrupJim SisemoreShawn McConnellJessie Finch
Heat 5Heat 6Heat 7Heat 8
FinchJohn AdenFariaAndy Northrup
Steve LuceroCastroBart BastSisemore
Gary HicksBobby SchwartzBrad OxleyShawn McConnell
Robert PfetzingDonnie OdomKossuthHancock
Heat 9Heat 10Heat 11Heat 12
Donnie OdomShawn McConnellSismoreFinch
HancockGary HicksRobert PfetzingAndy Northrup
Steve LuceroBart BastKossuthCastro
FariaBobby SchwartzJohn AdenBrad Oxley
Heat 13Heat 14Heat 15Heat 16
Brad OxleyBobby SchwartzHancockRobert Pfetzing
Shawn McConnellFinchKossuthDonnie Odom
John AdenSismoreCastroAndy Northrup
Steve LuceroFariaGary HicksBart Bast
Heat 17Heat 18Heat 19Heat 20
Steve LuceroRobert PfetzingKossuthGary Hicks
SismoreBobby SchwartzShawn McConnellJohn Aden
Bart BastBrad OxleyFinchFaria
CastroHancockDonnie OdomAndy Northrup

Kim Gregory predicts Faria to win with a perfect 15, Lucero to finish with 14, Schwartz and Hancock 12, Hicks with 11.
( if you can't see the table above, here it is in text format... )


Heat 1          Heat 2           Heat 3             Heat 4
Steve Lucero   Gary Hicks       Eddie Castro       Bart Bast
Bobby Schwartz Brad Oxley       Mike Faria        John Aden
Louis Kossuth  Donnie Odom      Robert Pfetzing    Greg Hancock
Andy Northrup  Jim Sisemore     Shawn McConnell   Jessie Finch

Heat 5          Heat 6           Heat 7             Heat 8
Finch           Aden             Faria              Northrup
Lucero          Castro           Bast               Sisemore
Hicks           Schwartz         Oxley              McConnell
Pfetzing        Odom             Kossuth            Hancock

Heat 9          Heat 10          Heat 11            Heat 12
Odom            McConnell        Sismore            Finch
Hancock         Hicks            Pfetzing           Northrup
Lucero          Bast             Kossuth            Castro
Faria           Schwartz          Aden              Oxley

Heat 13         Heat 14          Heat 15            Heat 16
Oxley           Schwartz         Hancock            Pfetzing
McConnell       Finch            Kossuth            Odom
Aden            Sismore          Castro             Northrup
Lucero          Faria            Hicks              Bast

Heat 17         Heat 18          Heat 19            Heat 20
Lucero          Phetzing         Kossuth            Hicks 
Sismore         Schwartz         McConnell          Aden 
Bast            Oxley            Finch              Faria 
Castro          Hancock          Odom               Northrup 



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